In March month my portfolio has been quite steady. March 2019 was also the month were the yield curve inverted. This will affect my forward investment strategy, in the short-term. I have made no deposits to any platforms. The portfolio has just been taking care of it self.
The overall performance is very satisfying. I have not made any deposits however the value of my portfolio has increase by ~400 euro or 7 percent since February. Nonetheless, lets get into this month of my portfolio.
Currently my portfolio is moving almost linear upwards. This makes me kinda worried and exited at the same time. First of all if the value of my portfolio can move progress linearly month after month there is two options. First of all, i am a good investor, or i am lucky/invested in the right things at the right time. Likewise, the market could collapse tomorrow. If so i clearly have made a pour decision to keep funds in the investments.
Inverted yield curve and cash strategy
As i mentioned before the yield curve inverted in March 2019. To briefly give you an understanding of the inverted yield curve, i will quote Graham Stepham. A successful YouTuber and real estate investor. He made a video discussing how the inverted yield curve affects the market.
The yield curve is a comparison of the short-term returns compared to the long-term returns of U.S. bonds. Normally the long-term bonds give a higher return because the future becomes more uncertain the longer you look. This is simply because no one knows if a war will start in 5 years, or the inflation will skyrocket in 10 years etc. As a result you will be compensated with a higher return.
So what does the inverted yield curve mean to me/us?
First of all, when the yield curve inverts it means that investors sees more risk investing in short-term rather than long-term bonds. The inversion of the yield curve normally indicates a recession. Furthermore, history like to repeat itself, hence i will be locking more cash in the bank. Yet as Graham states in the video it takes an average of 311 days for the recession to occur AFTER the yield curve inverts. This should allow me to purchase the stocks cheaper after the recession hits the market.
You can also look into the yield curve here.
Currently i am very pleased with my p2p platforms. They are providing a income of ~20 euro a month. The strategy change i had in February has already taking effect. In March i earned 0.6 euro more than in February on Mintos. While this can be more loans payed on time or not is unsure. However, i hope i can see and even bigger increase when we have April.
Other than an change in strategy on Mintos, not much have been done. You can read my review and look into my new strategy at my Mintos review page. However, my Envestio income has decrease from 12,35 euro down to 8,73 euro this month. What i can see from my statement is that i have not gotten that much timespan bonus (aka. referral bonus).
|Platform||Portfolio value||Interest income|
While my stocks had a small dip in February they have recovered nicely in March. I got dividend from 5 different stocks this month. Giving me a total income of 12 euro. Overall i am happy and not much has happened in general to my stock portfolio.
However, with the yield curve inverting i could be afraid that my portfolio would half in value in the near future. Luckily for me i have time on my side. If we are to hit a recession i will hold no grudge to a dramatic decrease in my stock value. However, i will look into decreasing the size of my portfolio if certain stocks make a big spike in value.
|Top Danmark A/S||5||44,39||221,95|
|Novo nordisk B A/S||6||46,58||279,48|
|Carlsberg B A/S||2||111,75||223,5|
|Alibaba Group Holding||1||159,98||159,98|
|Novozymers B A/S||6||41,22||247,32|
Mutual and index funds
The stocks, mutual and index funds are correlating. The mutual and index funds are a reflection of the stocks. With my mutual and index funds being distributed in the Danish C25 index, growth stocks and international stable stocks i expect a stable increase or decrease.
Just like with the stocks i might look towards deceasing my mutual and index funds. However, they are known to decrease or increase less than individual stocks. Hence i might just leave it be. The value is small and even if/when a recession occurs i will not lose anything significant.
|Index/mutual fund||Shares||Price||Total value|
|Maj invest vækstaktier||12||14,9||178,6|
|Sparindex INDEX Globale akt min risk KL||14||18,4||257|
|Sparindex INDEX OMX C25 KL||7||27,5||192,6|
The cryptocurrencies looks to be blooming a bit recently. From the telegram groups were i get my news of crypto i cannot see any reason why the prices has begone to increase. I do not whine about an increase in my portfolio value, however i would like to know why the market behaves as it does.
Despite the fact i can not explain the market behavior i am pleased to see that cryptocurrencies are on the rise again.
Conclusion of March 2019 – And to the yield curve inversion
To sum up i am delighted about the overall portfolio increases. First, i will try to increase my position in p2p platforms. Second, i will increase my cash holding. Furthermore, if a recession is to occur soon the platforms will hopefully handle it to a point where no money, or at least not much money is lost. Nevertheless i will have time on my side, hence a recovery will not be super difficult. Above all, in two years time i should make a decent amount of money to invest making room for bigger investments.
While the yield curve has inverted i will look towards increases in my p2p-platforms and to increase my cash holdings. Whether my cash increase will be from sellouts of stocks, crypto’s, mutual and index funds, or by saving income is unclear at this point.